(828newsNOW) — The 97th Academy Awards will be televised beginning at 7 p.m., Sunday, March 2 on ABC and streamed on Hulu. Before the stars hit the red carpet, read our analysis of who’s going home with Oscar gold and why.
Best Picture
The nominees:
- “Anora” – #5 on our 2024 Top 10 list – Read our review here.
- “The Brutalist” – Read our review here.
- “A Complete Unknown” – Read our review here.
- “Conclave” – Read more here.
- “Dune Part Two” – Read more here.
- “Emilia Pérez”
- “I’m Still Here”
- “Nickel Boys” – Read our review here.
- “The Substance” – Read more here.
- “Wicked” – Read our review here.
What will win: “Anora”
What should win: “Nickel Boys”
Why: “Anora,” Sean Baker’s fantastic Cinderella-story-gone-sour, has nearly cemented its trophy for Best Picture with precursor wins in nearly all of the major film industry guilds. The movie, with a sparkling, sparking, spiky Mikey Madison at its center, is a tremendous achievement and deserves the praise it has received from critics, audiences and the Academy alike. In many ways, “Anora” is pure, traditional Hollywood, if with a little more grit: a New York love story gone wrong, made by a respected, under-recognized filmmaker with an exciting new star at its center.
“Nickel Boys,” meanwhile, represents something new entirely. The RaMell Ross film is a brilliant push forward for the film camera’s ability to inhabit its characters. The movie puts you inside the heads of its leads in a heartbreaking whirlwind of imagery, impression and impressive POV camerawork. If only the film had the same ability to get inside the heads of the Academy. There’s nothing else like it.
Best Actress
The nominees:
- Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
- Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
- Mikey Madison, “Anora”
- Demi Moore, “The Substance”
- Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Who will win: Demi Moore, “The Substance”
Who should win: Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Why: Mikey Madison’s face seems to contain more emotions than emojis on a keyboard. If that comparison feels crass on the surface, so does Madison’s Ani, a fierce, foul-mouthed New York sex worker. Underneath the nudity and Take That soundtrack, however, is a well of hurt, humor, anger, ardor, athleticism and resolve. Madison has created in Ani an iconic heroine for the 21st century. Her performance is sensational.
All signs point to Demi Moore receiving her first Oscar come Sunday, and for good reason. I mean, heck, “The Substance” was my favorite film of the year, and Moore was a big reason why. We can only hope Madison will follow in her footsteps.
Best Actor
The nominees:
- Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
- Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
- Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing” – Read more here.
- Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
- Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
Who will win: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Who should win: Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Why: “The Brutalist” is amazing. Adrien Brody is amazing in it. He has swept nearly every awards precursor – with the exception of the Screen Actors Guild, which gave their Best Actor prize to Timothée Chalamet – and conquered everything from AI controversy to the A24 press circuit. But Brody has an Oscar.
Chalamet gave a great performance in a movie I don’t like all that much.
Colman Domingo is amazing in “Sing Sing” but is outshone by his costar, Clarence Maclin, woefully snubbed by the Academy for his performance.
Sebastian Stan is nominated for the inferior of his two most interesting performances last year – Read our overview of “A Different Man” here.
Just like the process of elimination that determined the Pope in “Conclave,” the magnificent Ralph Fiennes should rise to the top of the ballot for his thunderous performance in the papal thriller. Fiennes crackles with energy in the film, restraining his feelings just under the surface until they come out in spurts and bangs. It would be a joy to see him anointed on Oscar night.
Best Supporting Actress
The nominees:
- Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
- Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
- Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
- Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
- Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Who will win: Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
Who should win: Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Why: Despite all the controversy “Emilia Pérez” has garnered over the past few weeks, Zoe Saldaña has remained a steadfast presence on awards show stages. As someone who found “Emilia Pérez” grating at worst and bewildering at best, Saldaña was the standout of the film. She gives an undeniably great performance of fairly terrible material.
What would be an altogether far more refreshing pick for Best Supporting Actress would be a true supporting player. Ariana Grande has been holding space for her film, costar and performance all season long. It was miraculous that she managed not to overwhelm “Wicked” with her scene-stealing turn as Glinda and speaks to her power – and restraint – as an actress. Even if Saldaña is the popular pick, Grande will always have “Popular.”
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees:
- Yura Borisov, “Anora”
- Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain” – Read our review here.
- Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
- Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
- Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
Who will win: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Who should win: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Why: Kieran Culkin is extraordinary in “A Real Pain.” While Jesse Eisenberg’s film would be far less without Eisenberg’s steadfast direction, script and leading performance, Culkin is who elevates the movie to greatness.
It feels as though Culkin has won virtually every Supporting Actor trophy in the known universe this season, so it’ll be a real surprise if he doesn’t walk across the stage for the biggest one this weekend.
Best Director
The nominees:
- Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
- Sean Baker, “Anora”
- Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
- Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
- James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
Who will win: Sean Baker, “Anora”
Who should win: Sean Baker, “Anora”
Why: Sean Baker not only directed “Anora,” but wrote, produced, cast and edited it, too. For an award that’s all about honoring the vision of an artist, Baker fits the bill in quadruplicate. “Anora” is dynamite, and if it picks up wins for screenplay and editing early on in the night, expect Baker to walk the stage twice more for director and picture, too.
Best Original Screenplay
The nominees:
- “Anora,” written by Sean Baker
- “The Brutalist,” written by Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
- “A Real Pain,” written by Jesse Eisenberg
- “September 5,” written by Moritz Binder and Tim Fehlbaum and co-written by Alex David
- “The Substance,” written by Coralie Fargeat
What will win: “Anora”
What should win: “The Brutalist”
Why: My favorite part of “Anora” is not its script, it’s the performances of it. Madison and her costars, Yura Borisov, Karren Karagulian, Vache Tovmasyan and Mark Eydelshteyn, bring Baker’s script to antic life. The film might work without them, but Baker was cooking with his casting more than wringing great performances from his writing.
“The Brutalist,” meanwhile, is an incredible feat of storytelling on the page. Its cinematography, performances, direction and score are stupendous, but its script is as robust as the architecture it’s named for. There are half a dozen fully developed, conceptualized and brilliant thematic ideas in “The Brutalist” screenplay and probably three or four others waiting in the wings. It shouldn’t have come together as well as it did, but it did, and masterfully to boot. If the film blanks in every other category come Oscar night, screenplay would be a worthy consolation prize.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees:
- “A Complete Unknown,” written by James Mangold and Jay Cocks based on the book “Dylan Goes Electric!” by Elijah Wald
- “Conclave,” written by Peter Straughan based on the novel by Robert Harris
- “Emilia Pérez,” written by Jacques Audiard in collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi based on the opera libretto “Emilia Pérez” by Jacques Audiard and the novel “Écoute” by Boris Razon
- “Nickel Boys,” written by RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes based on the novel “The Nickel Boys” by Colson Whitehead
- “Sing Sing,” written by Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley with a story by Greg Kwedar, Clint Bentley, Clarence Maclin and John “Divine G” Whitfield based on the book “The Sing Sing Follies” by John H. Richardson and the play “Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code” by Brent Buell
What will win: “Conclave”
What should win: “Sing Sing”
Why: “Conclave” adapted a novel into a heightened version of life. “Sing Sing” adapted life into high art. Though the confusing distribution of “Sing Sing” meant that the film received less awards attention than it may have otherwise, the movie was one of the best cinematic experiences of 2024. An award for it on Sunday – the film was only nominated for Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Song – would mean more eyes on the divine work of art that it is. The lives of the men of the Sing Sing Rehabilitation Through the Arts program shine through the script as radiantly as if it were documentary; aided, of course, by the fact that many of them played themselves.
Good luck with your Oscar ballot. If you want to compare yours against mine on Oscar night, email pruett@828newsNOW.com. See you on the red carpet.