Toilet paper tariffs: UNC Asheville professor explains trade war impact on Asheville

ASHEVILLE, N.C. (828newsNOW) — Trade tensions between the United States and Canada have escalated this summer. President Donald Trump implemented a 50% tariff on $27.6 billion of Canadian imports in late August, resulting in Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announcing counter tariffs on U.S. products, including aluminum, wood pulp and more.

What do those tariffs mean for Asheville industries, like breweries, that rely on such products? Or Asheville consumers who use products impacted by the tariffs, like toilet paper?

Robert Tatum, an economics and finance professor and university honors director at the University of North Carolina Asheville, explained that the consequences of the tariffs will likely be less severe than they appear.

What is happening with Canada and U.S. tariffs?

The new Canadian counter tariffs will be implemented at 12:01 a.m., Tuesday, Sept. 8, 2026, concentrated in “sectors such as steel and aluminum, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, plastics and electronics. In certain sectors, such as steel and aluminum, existing counter-tariffs will increase from 25 per cent to 50 per cent to match U.S. rates,” the Department of Finance Canada wrote in an article posted to the government website.

The action is a national response to an ongoing trade war between the neighboring nations.

“The Canadian story that’s part of this is that they interpret this, and maybe correctly, as a trade war,” Tatum said. “So, you know, they’re also retaliating. It’s not just us raising tariffs on things. They’re responding to those as well.”

The White House stated that the wave of increased tariffs was a decision made by Trump to combat Canada’s “continued discrimination” against U.S. commerce.

“President Trump is taking action to hold Canada accountable for its continued discrimination against and unreasonable and unequal treatment of U.S. commerce that has burdened and disadvantaged hardworking Americans,” the White House wrote on July 20, 2026.

How will Asheville be impacted by the US–Canada trade war?

According to Tatum, the impact of the tariffs is a nuanced issue. The economist used wood pulp as an example.

Rather than impacting all toilet paper, or related items like paper towels, the sanction is predominantly for “premium” pulp items.

“I think this is about a 50% tariff that was put in place on that. But does that mean consumer prices, toilet paper prices, are gonna be 50% higher? 
I think the answer is clearly no,” Tatum said. “But what does that mean, though?”

Tatum explained that the choice of the consumer, as far as which products they choose to purchase, plays a major role in the reach of the tariffs.

“For example, there are southern U.S. producers of quality pulp that could be used, and in that way, it actually can have a benefit on that industry. 
But even for the toilet paper, it could still be that the manufacturer sees their cost going up from that and they may have to absorb that cost. No pun intended,” Tatum said. “They might have to absorb that cost, but it might actually also go on to consumers. But even consumers, they have choices in the matter, too. 
They might say, yeah, I think I’m just going to actually get the less soft toilet paper than I did before.”

A 50% tariff on wood pulp will not mean a 50% increase on paper cost, Tatum said, but there will be an increase, small as it will likely be.

With aluminum, it’s a similar story. The impact of the aluminum tariffs on Asheville breweries that use aluminum cans will likely be minor.

“The vast majority of aluminum cans bought by small breweries are actually American-made. Now, again, it could very well be, as prices start going up on Canadian aluminum, that American aluminum producers see an opportunity to raise their prices and have a higher profit as a result of that,” Tatum said.

“But, again, there’s always a possibility for substitution. 
There’s always, you know, to go to bottles, or whatever it might be. So, yes, it can have some impact, but it’s probably not going to be as large as the actual tariff itself.”

According to the economics professor, that pattern – big tariff numbers with more muted consequences – stands for most of the tariffs.

“The magnitude we’re seeing out of this isn’t as great, I think, as what people anticipated or economists anticipated them to be when we started down this higher tariff path, being that the impact has neither been as positive as anticipated or as negative as anticipated,” Tatum said.